The Logic of Failure

Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations

Dietrich Dörner

Publisher: Perseus, 1997

ISBN: 0-201-47948-6

Synopsis:

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Table of Contents:

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1. Some Examples
• The Lamentable Fate of Tanaland
• The Not-Quite-So-Lamentable Fate of Greenvale
• Chernobyl in Tanaland
2. The Demands
• Complexity
• Dynamics
• Intransparence
• Ignorance and Mistaken Hypotheses
• Steps in Planning and Action
3. Setting Goals
• Requirements of Goal Setting
• General Goals and Repair Service" Behavior
• Liberty, Equality, and "Voluntary Conscription"
4. Information and Models
• Reality, Models, and Information
• Solving Problems One at a Time
• "It's the Environment"
• Prime numbers and Tourist Traffic, or Moltke and Forest Fires
• The Pale Cast of Thought
5. Time Sequences
• Time and Space
• Lily Pads, Grains of Rice, and AIDS
• A Premature All Clear?
• Laymen and Experts
• "Twenty-eight Is a Good Number"
• Predators and Prey
• The Moths of Kuera
6. Planning
• "Go Make Yourself a Plan …
• Rumpelstiltskin
• Learn by Making Mistakes? Not Necessarily!
7. So What Do We Do?